RENUKA FOODS (Sri Lanka) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 10.2
| COCOX0000 | LKR 10.30 0.30 3.00% |
RENUKA |
RENUKA FOODS Target Price Odds to finish below 10.2
The tendency of RENUKA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 10.20 or more in 90 days |
| 10.30 | 90 days | 10.20 | about 38.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of RENUKA FOODS to drop to 10.20 or more in 90 days from now is about 38.75 (This RENUKA FOODS PLC probability density function shows the probability of RENUKA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of RENUKA FOODS PLC price to stay between 10.20 and its current price of 10.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.94 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon RENUKA FOODS PLC has a beta of -0.28 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding RENUKA FOODS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, RENUKA FOODS PLC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally RENUKA FOODS PLC has an alpha of 0.0098, implying that it can generate a 0.009768 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). RENUKA FOODS Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for RENUKA FOODS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RENUKA FOODS PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of RENUKA FOODS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
RENUKA FOODS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. RENUKA FOODS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the RENUKA FOODS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold RENUKA FOODS PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of RENUKA FOODS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.36 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
RENUKA FOODS Technical Analysis
RENUKA FOODS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. RENUKA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of RENUKA FOODS PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing RENUKA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
RENUKA FOODS Predictive Forecast Models
RENUKA FOODS's time-series forecasting models is one of many RENUKA FOODS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary RENUKA FOODS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards RENUKA FOODS in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, RENUKA FOODS's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from RENUKA FOODS options trading.
Other Information on Investing in RENUKA Stock
RENUKA FOODS financial ratios help investors to determine whether RENUKA Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in RENUKA with respect to the benefits of owning RENUKA FOODS security.