Colgate Palmolive (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 80.39
| COLG34 Stock | BRL 81.79 1.21 1.46% |
Colgate |
Colgate Palmolive Target Price Odds to finish below 80.39
The tendency of Colgate Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 80.39 or more in 90 days |
| 81.79 | 90 days | 80.39 | about 49.2 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Colgate Palmolive to drop to R$ 80.39 or more in 90 days from now is about 49.2 (This Colgate Palmolive probability density function shows the probability of Colgate Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Colgate Palmolive price to stay between R$ 80.39 and its current price of R$81.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.06 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Colgate Palmolive has a beta of -0.0298 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Colgate Palmolive are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Colgate Palmolive is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Colgate Palmolive has an alpha of 0.0047, implying that it can generate a 0.004651 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Colgate Palmolive Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Colgate Palmolive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Colgate Palmolive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Colgate Palmolive Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Colgate Palmolive is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Colgate Palmolive's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Colgate Palmolive, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Colgate Palmolive within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Colgate Palmolive Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Colgate Palmolive for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Colgate Palmolive can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Colgate Palmolive generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Colgate Palmolive Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Colgate Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Colgate Palmolive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Colgate Palmolive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 835.2 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -1.7 B | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 1.39 | |
| Shares Float | 5.5 B |
Colgate Palmolive Technical Analysis
Colgate Palmolive's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Colgate Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Colgate Palmolive. In general, you should focus on analyzing Colgate Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Colgate Palmolive Predictive Forecast Models
Colgate Palmolive's time-series forecasting models is one of many Colgate Palmolive's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Colgate Palmolive's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Colgate Palmolive
Checking the ongoing alerts about Colgate Palmolive for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Colgate Palmolive help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Colgate Palmolive generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Colgate Stock
When determining whether Colgate Palmolive is a strong investment it is important to analyze Colgate Palmolive's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Colgate Palmolive's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Colgate Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Colgate Palmolive Backtesting, Colgate Palmolive Valuation, Colgate Palmolive Correlation, Colgate Palmolive Hype Analysis, Colgate Palmolive Volatility, Colgate Palmolive History as well as Colgate Palmolive Performance. For information on how to trade Colgate Stock refer to our How to Trade Colgate Stock guide.You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.