COMMERCIAL BANK (Sri Lanka) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 90.27
| COMBX0000 | LKR 94.90 0.40 0.42% |
COMMERCIAL |
COMMERCIAL BANK Target Price Odds to finish below 90.27
The tendency of COMMERCIAL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 90.27 or more in 90 days |
| 94.90 | 90 days | 90.27 | about 79.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of COMMERCIAL BANK to drop to 90.27 or more in 90 days from now is about 79.94 (This COMMERCIAL BANK OF probability density function shows the probability of COMMERCIAL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of COMMERCIAL BANK price to stay between 90.27 and its current price of 94.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.96 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon COMMERCIAL BANK OF has a beta of -0.16 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding COMMERCIAL BANK are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, COMMERCIAL BANK OF is likely to outperform the market. Additionally COMMERCIAL BANK OF has an alpha of 0.3798, implying that it can generate a 0.38 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). COMMERCIAL BANK Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for COMMERCIAL BANK
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as COMMERCIAL BANK. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of COMMERCIAL BANK's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
COMMERCIAL BANK Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. COMMERCIAL BANK is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the COMMERCIAL BANK's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold COMMERCIAL BANK OF, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of COMMERCIAL BANK within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
COMMERCIAL BANK Technical Analysis
COMMERCIAL BANK's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. COMMERCIAL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of COMMERCIAL BANK OF. In general, you should focus on analyzing COMMERCIAL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
COMMERCIAL BANK Predictive Forecast Models
COMMERCIAL BANK's time-series forecasting models is one of many COMMERCIAL BANK's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary COMMERCIAL BANK's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards COMMERCIAL BANK in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, COMMERCIAL BANK's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from COMMERCIAL BANK options trading.
Other Information on Investing in COMMERCIAL Stock
COMMERCIAL BANK financial ratios help investors to determine whether COMMERCIAL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in COMMERCIAL with respect to the benefits of owning COMMERCIAL BANK security.