Commercial International (Egypt) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 78.56
| COMI Stock | 79.81 0.19 0.24% |
Commercial |
Commercial International Target Price Odds to finish below 78.56
The tendency of Commercial Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 78.56 or more in 90 days |
| 79.81 | 90 days | 78.56 | nearly 4.13 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Commercial International to drop to 78.56 or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.13 (This Commercial International Bank Egypt probability density function shows the probability of Commercial Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Commercial International price to stay between 78.56 and its current price of 79.81 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.72 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Commercial International has a beta of 0.46 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Commercial International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Commercial International Bank Egypt will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Commercial International Bank Egypt has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Commercial International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Commercial International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commercial International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Commercial International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Commercial International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Commercial International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Commercial International Bank Egypt, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Commercial International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.46 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.83 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Commercial International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Commercial International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Commercial International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Commercial International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Commercial International Technical Analysis
Commercial International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Commercial Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Commercial International Bank Egypt. In general, you should focus on analyzing Commercial Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Commercial International Predictive Forecast Models
Commercial International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Commercial International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Commercial International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Commercial International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Commercial International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Commercial International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Commercial International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |