Charoen Pokphand (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4691.18
| CPIN Stock | IDR 4,710 40.00 0.84% |
Charoen |
Charoen Pokphand Target Price Odds to finish below 4691.18
The tendency of Charoen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 4,691 or more in 90 days |
| 4,710 | 90 days | 4,691 | nearly 4.84 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Charoen Pokphand to drop to 4,691 or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.84 (This Charoen Pokphand Indonesia probability density function shows the probability of Charoen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Charoen Pokphand Ind price to stay between 4,691 and its current price of 4710.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.57 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Charoen Pokphand Indonesia has a beta of -0.0669 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Charoen Pokphand are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Charoen Pokphand Indonesia is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Charoen Pokphand Indonesia has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Charoen Pokphand Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Charoen Pokphand
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Charoen Pokphand Ind. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Charoen Pokphand Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Charoen Pokphand is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Charoen Pokphand's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Charoen Pokphand Indonesia, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Charoen Pokphand within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 136.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Charoen Pokphand Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Charoen Pokphand for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Charoen Pokphand Ind can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Charoen Pokphand Ind generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Charoen Pokphand Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Charoen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Charoen Pokphand's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Charoen Pokphand's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 T |
Charoen Pokphand Technical Analysis
Charoen Pokphand's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Charoen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Charoen Pokphand Indonesia. In general, you should focus on analyzing Charoen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Charoen Pokphand Predictive Forecast Models
Charoen Pokphand's time-series forecasting models is one of many Charoen Pokphand's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Charoen Pokphand's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Charoen Pokphand Ind
Checking the ongoing alerts about Charoen Pokphand for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Charoen Pokphand Ind help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Charoen Pokphand Ind generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Charoen Stock
Charoen Pokphand financial ratios help investors to determine whether Charoen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Charoen with respect to the benefits of owning Charoen Pokphand security.