Government Bond Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 9.55
| CPTNX Fund | USD 9.35 0.08 0.86% |
Government |
Government Bond Target Price Odds to finish over 9.55
The tendency of Government Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 9.55 or more in 90 days |
| 9.35 | 90 days | 9.55 | about 26.02 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Government Bond to move over $ 9.55 or more in 90 days from now is about 26.02 (This Government Bond Fund probability density function shows the probability of Government Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Government Bond price to stay between its current price of $ 9.35 and $ 9.55 at the end of the 90-day period is about 52.38 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Government Bond Fund has a beta of -0.0528 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Government Bond are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Government Bond Fund is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Government Bond Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Government Bond Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Government Bond
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Government Bond. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Government Bond Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Government Bond is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Government Bond's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Government Bond Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Government Bond within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.52 |
Government Bond Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Government Bond for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Government Bond can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Government Bond generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Government Bond generated five year return of -1.0% | |
| This fund holds about 5.22% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Government Bond Technical Analysis
Government Bond's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Government Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Government Bond Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Government Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Government Bond Predictive Forecast Models
Government Bond's time-series forecasting models is one of many Government Bond's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Government Bond's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Government Bond
Checking the ongoing alerts about Government Bond for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Government Bond help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Government Bond generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Government Bond generated five year return of -1.0% | |
| This fund holds about 5.22% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Government Mutual Fund
Government Bond financial ratios help investors to determine whether Government Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Government with respect to the benefits of owning Government Bond security.
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