Cresud SA (Argentina) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1150.8
| CRES Stock | ARS 1,370 5.00 0.37% |
Cresud |
Cresud SA Target Price Odds to finish below 1150.8
The tendency of Cresud Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 1,151 or more in 90 days |
| 1,370 | 90 days | 1,151 | about 57.54 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cresud SA to drop to 1,151 or more in 90 days from now is about 57.54 (This Cresud SA probability density function shows the probability of Cresud Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cresud SA price to stay between 1,151 and its current price of 1370.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.96 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cresud SA has a beta of 0.34 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Cresud SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cresud SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cresud SA has an alpha of 0.4621, implying that it can generate a 0.46 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cresud SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cresud SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cresud SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cresud SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cresud SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cresud SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cresud SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cresud SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.46 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 86.72 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
Cresud SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cresud SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cresud SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cresud SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 36.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Cresud SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cresud Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cresud SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cresud SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 592.1 M |
Cresud SA Technical Analysis
Cresud SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cresud Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cresud SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cresud Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cresud SA Predictive Forecast Models
Cresud SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cresud SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cresud SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cresud SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cresud SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cresud SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cresud SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 36.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Cresud Stock
Cresud SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cresud Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cresud with respect to the benefits of owning Cresud SA security.