Castle Biosciences Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 28.75
| CSTL Stock | USD 30.28 0.16 0.53% |
Castle |
Castle Biosciences Target Price Odds to finish below 28.75
The tendency of Castle Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 28.75 or more in 90 days |
| 30.28 | 90 days | 28.75 | about 15.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Castle Biosciences to drop to $ 28.75 or more in 90 days from now is about 15.75 (This Castle Biosciences probability density function shows the probability of Castle Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Castle Biosciences price to stay between $ 28.75 and its current price of $30.28 at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.76 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.21 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Castle Biosciences will likely underperform. Additionally Castle Biosciences has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Castle Biosciences Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Castle Biosciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Castle Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Castle Biosciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Castle Biosciences Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Castle Biosciences is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Castle Biosciences' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Castle Biosciences, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Castle Biosciences within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.94 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0073 |
Castle Biosciences Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Castle Biosciences for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Castle Biosciences can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Castle Biosciences had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 219.79 M. Net Loss for the year was (57.47 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 105.03 M. | |
| Castle Biosciences currently holds about 273.17 M in cash with (5.63 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.39. | |
| Castle Biosciences has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Castle Biosciences Inc Shares Up 3.52 percent on Nov 26 |
Castle Biosciences Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Castle Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Castle Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Castle Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 26.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 243.1 M |
Castle Biosciences Technical Analysis
Castle Biosciences' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Castle Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Castle Biosciences. In general, you should focus on analyzing Castle Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Castle Biosciences Predictive Forecast Models
Castle Biosciences' time-series forecasting models is one of many Castle Biosciences' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Castle Biosciences' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Castle Biosciences
Checking the ongoing alerts about Castle Biosciences for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Castle Biosciences help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Castle Biosciences had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 219.79 M. Net Loss for the year was (57.47 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 105.03 M. | |
| Castle Biosciences currently holds about 273.17 M in cash with (5.63 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.39. | |
| Castle Biosciences has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Castle Biosciences Inc Shares Up 3.52 percent on Nov 26 |
Check out Castle Biosciences Backtesting, Castle Biosciences Valuation, Castle Biosciences Correlation, Castle Biosciences Hype Analysis, Castle Biosciences Volatility, Castle Biosciences History as well as Castle Biosciences Performance. For more information on how to buy Castle Stock please use our How to buy in Castle Stock guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Castle Biosciences. If investors know Castle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Castle Biosciences listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.93) | Earnings Share 0.21 | Revenue Per Share 11.34 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.395 | Return On Assets (0) |
The market value of Castle Biosciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Castle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Castle Biosciences' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Castle Biosciences' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Castle Biosciences' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Castle Biosciences' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Castle Biosciences' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Castle Biosciences is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Castle Biosciences' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.