Citigroup (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 56.05
| CTGP34 Stock | BRL 73.22 0.35 0.48% |
Citigroup |
Citigroup Target Price Odds to finish over 56.05
The tendency of Citigroup Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above R$ 56.05 in 90 days |
| 73.22 | 90 days | 56.05 | about 81.63 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Citigroup to stay above R$ 56.05 in 90 days from now is about 81.63 (This Citigroup probability density function shows the probability of Citigroup Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Citigroup price to stay between R$ 56.05 and its current price of R$73.22 at the end of the 90-day period is about 78.87 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Citigroup has a beta of -0.25 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Citigroup are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Citigroup is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Citigroup has an alpha of 0.4785, implying that it can generate a 0.48 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Citigroup Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Citigroup
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citigroup. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Citigroup Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Citigroup is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Citigroup's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Citigroup, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Citigroup within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.48 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.18 |
Citigroup Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Citigroup Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Citigroup's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Citigroup's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 B |
Citigroup Technical Analysis
Citigroup's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Citigroup Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Citigroup. In general, you should focus on analyzing Citigroup Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Citigroup Predictive Forecast Models
Citigroup's time-series forecasting models is one of many Citigroup's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Citigroup's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Citigroup in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Citigroup's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Citigroup options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Citigroup Stock
When determining whether Citigroup offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Citigroup's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Citigroup Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Citigroup Stock:Check out Citigroup Backtesting, Citigroup Valuation, Citigroup Correlation, Citigroup Hype Analysis, Citigroup Volatility, Citigroup History as well as Citigroup Performance. For information on how to trade Citigroup Stock refer to our How to Trade Citigroup Stock guide.You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.