COSTCO WHOLESALE (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 25.09

CTO0 Stock   31.00  0.80  2.65%   
COSTCO WHOLESALE's future price is the expected price of COSTCO WHOLESALE instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of COSTCO WHOLESALE CDR performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out COSTCO WHOLESALE Backtesting, COSTCO WHOLESALE Valuation, COSTCO WHOLESALE Correlation, COSTCO WHOLESALE Hype Analysis, COSTCO WHOLESALE Volatility, COSTCO WHOLESALE History as well as COSTCO WHOLESALE Performance.
  
Please specify COSTCO WHOLESALE's target price for which you would like COSTCO WHOLESALE odds to be computed.

COSTCO WHOLESALE Target Price Odds to finish below 25.09

The tendency of COSTCO Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  25.09  or more in 90 days
 31.00 90 days 25.09 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of COSTCO WHOLESALE to drop to  25.09  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This COSTCO WHOLESALE CDR probability density function shows the probability of COSTCO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of COSTCO WHOLESALE CDR price to stay between  25.09  and its current price of 31.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon COSTCO WHOLESALE has a beta of 0.73 suggesting as returns on the market go up, COSTCO WHOLESALE average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding COSTCO WHOLESALE CDR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally COSTCO WHOLESALE CDR has an alpha of 0.1429, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   COSTCO WHOLESALE Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for COSTCO WHOLESALE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as COSTCO WHOLESALE CDR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
29.4131.0032.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.9036.8938.48
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
29.0130.6032.18
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
25.4928.1630.84
Details

COSTCO WHOLESALE Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. COSTCO WHOLESALE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the COSTCO WHOLESALE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold COSTCO WHOLESALE CDR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of COSTCO WHOLESALE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.14
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.73
σ
Overall volatility
1.26
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

COSTCO WHOLESALE Technical Analysis

COSTCO WHOLESALE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. COSTCO Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of COSTCO WHOLESALE CDR. In general, you should focus on analyzing COSTCO Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

COSTCO WHOLESALE Predictive Forecast Models

COSTCO WHOLESALE's time-series forecasting models is one of many COSTCO WHOLESALE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary COSTCO WHOLESALE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards COSTCO WHOLESALE in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, COSTCO WHOLESALE's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from COSTCO WHOLESALE options trading.

Other Information on Investing in COSTCO Stock

COSTCO WHOLESALE financial ratios help investors to determine whether COSTCO Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in COSTCO with respect to the benefits of owning COSTCO WHOLESALE security.