Country Garden Holdings Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 4.17
| CTRYY Stock | USD 3.75 0.32 7.86% |
Country |
Country Garden Target Price Odds to finish over 4.17
The tendency of Country Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 4.17 or more in 90 days |
| 3.75 | 90 days | 4.17 | about 14.76 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Country Garden to move over $ 4.17 or more in 90 days from now is about 14.76 (This Country Garden Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Country Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Country Garden Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 3.75 and $ 4.17 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.86 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Country Garden Holdings has a beta of -2.24 suggesting as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Country Garden Holdings are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Country Garden is expected to outperform its benchmark. In addition to that Country Garden Holdings has an alpha of 2.3694, implying that it can generate a 2.37 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Country Garden Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Country Garden
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Country Garden Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Country Garden's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Country Garden Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Country Garden is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Country Garden's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Country Garden Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Country Garden within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 2.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -2.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
Country Garden Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Country Garden for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Country Garden Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Country Garden is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Country Garden is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Country Garden appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
Country Garden Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Country Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Country Garden's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Country Garden's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 22.9 B |
Country Garden Technical Analysis
Country Garden's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Country Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Country Garden Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Country Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Country Garden Predictive Forecast Models
Country Garden's time-series forecasting models is one of many Country Garden's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Country Garden's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Country Garden Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Country Garden for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Country Garden Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Country Garden is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Country Garden is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Country Garden appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
Additional Tools for Country Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Country Garden's price analysis, check to measure Country Garden's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Country Garden is operating at the current time. Most of Country Garden's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Country Garden's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Country Garden's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Country Garden to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.