Cvr Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 24.52
| CVI Stock | USD 19.27 0.13 0.68% |
CVR |
CVR Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 24.52
The tendency of CVR Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 24.52 after 90 days |
| 19.27 | 90 days | 24.52 | about 82.22 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CVR Energy to stay under $ 24.52 after 90 days from now is about 82.22 (This CVR Energy probability density function shows the probability of CVR Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CVR Energy price to stay between its current price of $ 19.27 and $ 24.52 at the end of the 90-day period is about 63.78 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.8 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, CVR Energy will likely underperform. Additionally CVR Energy has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. CVR Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CVR Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CVR Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CVR Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CVR Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CVR Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CVR Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CVR Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CVR Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.47 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.80 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.88 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
CVR Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CVR Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CVR Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| CVR Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| CVR Energy has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| CVR Energy is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| CVR Energy has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Carl Icahn Reduces Stake in Southwest Gas Holdings Inc |
CVR Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CVR Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CVR Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CVR Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 100.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 581 M |
CVR Energy Technical Analysis
CVR Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CVR Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CVR Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing CVR Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CVR Energy Predictive Forecast Models
CVR Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many CVR Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CVR Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CVR Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about CVR Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CVR Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| CVR Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| CVR Energy has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| CVR Energy is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| CVR Energy has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Carl Icahn Reduces Stake in Southwest Gas Holdings Inc |
Check out CVR Energy Backtesting, CVR Energy Valuation, CVR Energy Correlation, CVR Energy Hype Analysis, CVR Energy Volatility, CVR Energy History as well as CVR Energy Performance. For more detail on how to invest in CVR Stock please use our How to Invest in CVR Energy guide.You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Is Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CVR Energy. If investors know CVR will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CVR Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.84) | Dividend Share 1.5 | Earnings Share 0.69 | Revenue Per Share 78.259 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.27) |
The market value of CVR Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CVR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CVR Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CVR Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CVR Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CVR Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CVR Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CVR Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CVR Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.