VALE N1 (Germany) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 8.08
| CVLC Stock | EUR 9.64 0.07 0.72% |
VALE |
VALE N1 Target Price Odds to finish below 8.08
The tendency of VALE Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 8.08 or more in 90 days |
| 9.64 | 90 days | 8.08 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of VALE N1 to drop to € 8.08 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This VALE N1 probability density function shows the probability of VALE Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of VALE N1 price to stay between € 8.08 and its current price of €9.64 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.57 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon VALE N1 has a beta of -0.31 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding VALE N1 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, VALE N1 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally VALE N1 has an alpha of 0.0477, implying that it can generate a 0.0477 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). VALE N1 Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for VALE N1
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VALE N1. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VALE N1 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. VALE N1 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the VALE N1's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold VALE N1, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of VALE N1 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.31 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
VALE N1 Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of VALE Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential VALE N1's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. VALE N1's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.8 B | |
| Dividends Paid | 13.5 B | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 1.2 B |
VALE N1 Technical Analysis
VALE N1's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. VALE Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of VALE N1. In general, you should focus on analyzing VALE Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
VALE N1 Predictive Forecast Models
VALE N1's time-series forecasting models is one of many VALE N1's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary VALE N1's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards VALE N1 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, VALE N1's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from VALE N1 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in VALE Stock
VALE N1 financial ratios help investors to determine whether VALE Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in VALE with respect to the benefits of owning VALE N1 security.