Carnarvon Petroleum Limited Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 0.01
| CVONF Stock | USD 0.10 0.00 0.00% |
Carnarvon |
Carnarvon Petroleum Target Price Odds to finish below 0.01
The tendency of Carnarvon Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.01 or more in 90 days |
| 0.10 | 90 days | 0.01 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Carnarvon Petroleum to drop to $ 0.01 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Carnarvon Petroleum Limited probability density function shows the probability of Carnarvon Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Carnarvon Petroleum price to stay between $ 0.01 and its current price of $0.1 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.24 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Carnarvon Petroleum Limited has a beta of -0.68 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Carnarvon Petroleum are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Carnarvon Petroleum Limited is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Carnarvon Petroleum Limited has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Carnarvon Petroleum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Carnarvon Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carnarvon Petroleum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Carnarvon Petroleum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Carnarvon Petroleum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Carnarvon Petroleum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Carnarvon Petroleum Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Carnarvon Petroleum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Carnarvon Petroleum Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Carnarvon Petroleum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Carnarvon Petroleum can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Carnarvon Petroleum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Carnarvon Petroleum has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Carnarvon Petroleum has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the revenue of 336 K. Net Loss for the year was (53.75 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (2.1 M). | |
| Carnarvon Petroleum Limited has accumulated about 112.61 M in cash with (5.62 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.06. |
Carnarvon Petroleum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Carnarvon Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Carnarvon Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carnarvon Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 B |
Carnarvon Petroleum Technical Analysis
Carnarvon Petroleum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Carnarvon Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Carnarvon Petroleum Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Carnarvon Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Carnarvon Petroleum Predictive Forecast Models
Carnarvon Petroleum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Carnarvon Petroleum's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Carnarvon Petroleum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Carnarvon Petroleum
Checking the ongoing alerts about Carnarvon Petroleum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Carnarvon Petroleum help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Carnarvon Petroleum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Carnarvon Petroleum has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Carnarvon Petroleum has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the revenue of 336 K. Net Loss for the year was (53.75 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (2.1 M). | |
| Carnarvon Petroleum Limited has accumulated about 112.61 M in cash with (5.62 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.06. |
Other Information on Investing in Carnarvon Pink Sheet
Carnarvon Petroleum financial ratios help investors to determine whether Carnarvon Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Carnarvon with respect to the benefits of owning Carnarvon Petroleum security.