Caixa Seguridade (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.52
| CXSE3 Stock | BRL 14.53 0.27 1.89% |
Caixa |
Caixa Seguridade Target Price Odds to finish below 14.52
The tendency of Caixa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 14.52 or more in 90 days |
| 14.53 | 90 days | 14.52 | about 49.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Caixa Seguridade to drop to R$ 14.52 or more in 90 days from now is about 49.0 (This Caixa Seguridade Participaes probability density function shows the probability of Caixa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Caixa Seguridade Par price to stay between R$ 14.52 and its current price of R$14.53 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Caixa Seguridade Participaes has a beta of -0.0232 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Caixa Seguridade are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Caixa Seguridade Participaes is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Caixa Seguridade Participaes has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Caixa Seguridade Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Caixa Seguridade
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caixa Seguridade Par. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Caixa Seguridade Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Caixa Seguridade is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Caixa Seguridade's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Caixa Seguridade Participaes, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Caixa Seguridade within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.57 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Caixa Seguridade Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Caixa Seguridade for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Caixa Seguridade Par can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Caixa Seguridade Par generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Caixa Seguridade Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Caixa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Caixa Seguridade's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caixa Seguridade's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3 B |
Caixa Seguridade Technical Analysis
Caixa Seguridade's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Caixa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Caixa Seguridade Participaes. In general, you should focus on analyzing Caixa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Caixa Seguridade Predictive Forecast Models
Caixa Seguridade's time-series forecasting models is one of many Caixa Seguridade's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Caixa Seguridade's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Caixa Seguridade Par
Checking the ongoing alerts about Caixa Seguridade for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Caixa Seguridade Par help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Caixa Seguridade Par generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Tools for Caixa Stock Analysis
When running Caixa Seguridade's price analysis, check to measure Caixa Seguridade's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Caixa Seguridade is operating at the current time. Most of Caixa Seguridade's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Caixa Seguridade's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Caixa Seguridade's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Caixa Seguridade to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.