DCB MERCIAL (Tanzania) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 157.65
| DCB Stock | 155.00 5.00 3.12% |
DCB |
DCB MERCIAL Target Price Odds to finish below 157.65
The tendency of DCB Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 157.65 after 90 days |
| 155.00 | 90 days | 157.65 | about 58.35 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of DCB MERCIAL to stay under 157.65 after 90 days from now is about 58.35 (This DCB MERCIAL BANK probability density function shows the probability of DCB Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of DCB MERCIAL BANK price to stay between its current price of 155.00 and 157.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.53 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon DCB MERCIAL BANK has a beta of -0.0885 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding DCB MERCIAL are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, DCB MERCIAL BANK is likely to outperform the market. Additionally DCB MERCIAL BANK has an alpha of 0.2888, implying that it can generate a 0.29 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). DCB MERCIAL Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for DCB MERCIAL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DCB MERCIAL BANK. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of DCB MERCIAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
DCB MERCIAL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. DCB MERCIAL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the DCB MERCIAL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold DCB MERCIAL BANK, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of DCB MERCIAL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.29 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
DCB MERCIAL Technical Analysis
DCB MERCIAL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. DCB Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of DCB MERCIAL BANK. In general, you should focus on analyzing DCB Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
DCB MERCIAL Predictive Forecast Models
DCB MERCIAL's time-series forecasting models is one of many DCB MERCIAL's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary DCB MERCIAL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards DCB MERCIAL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, DCB MERCIAL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from DCB MERCIAL options trading.