Denbury Resources Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 86.26
| DENDelisted Stock | USD 86.53 0.68 0.79% |
Denbury |
Denbury Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 86.26
The tendency of Denbury Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 86.26 or more in 90 days |
| 86.53 | 90 days | 86.26 | about 19.4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Denbury Resources to drop to $ 86.26 or more in 90 days from now is about 19.4 (This Denbury Resources probability density function shows the probability of Denbury Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Denbury Resources price to stay between $ 86.26 and its current price of $86.53 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.49 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Denbury Resources has a beta of -0.2 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Denbury Resources are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Denbury Resources is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Denbury Resources has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Denbury Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Denbury Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Denbury Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Denbury Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Denbury Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Denbury Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Denbury Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Denbury Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Denbury Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Denbury Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Denbury Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Denbury Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Denbury Resources is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Denbury Resources has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Denbury Resources has 49.11 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.02, which may show that the company is not taking advantage of profits from borrowing. Denbury Resources has a current ratio of 0.51, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Denbury to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 97.0% of Denbury Resources shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Denbury Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Denbury Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Denbury Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Denbury Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 521 K |
Denbury Resources Technical Analysis
Denbury Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Denbury Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Denbury Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Denbury Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Denbury Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Denbury Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Denbury Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Denbury Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Denbury Resources
Checking the ongoing alerts about Denbury Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Denbury Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Denbury Resources is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Denbury Resources has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Denbury Resources has 49.11 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.02, which may show that the company is not taking advantage of profits from borrowing. Denbury Resources has a current ratio of 0.51, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Denbury to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 97.0% of Denbury Resources shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in income. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Other Consideration for investing in Denbury Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Denbury Resources check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Denbury Resources' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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