Deva Holding (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 48.93

DEVA Stock  TRY 70.95  0.90  1.28%   
Deva Holding's future price is the expected price of Deva Holding instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Deva Holding AS performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Deva Holding Backtesting, Deva Holding Valuation, Deva Holding Correlation, Deva Holding Hype Analysis, Deva Holding Volatility, Deva Holding History as well as Deva Holding Performance.
  
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Deva Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 48.93

The tendency of Deva Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  48.93  or more in 90 days
 70.95 90 days 48.93 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Deva Holding to drop to  48.93  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Deva Holding AS probability density function shows the probability of Deva Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Deva Holding AS price to stay between  48.93  and its current price of 70.95 at the end of the 90-day period is under 95 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Deva Holding has a beta of 0.48 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Deva Holding average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Deva Holding AS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Deva Holding AS has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Deva Holding Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Deva Holding

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Deva Holding AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
68.2270.0571.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
66.3868.2177.06
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
67.7969.6271.44
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
68.4269.4270.42
Details

Deva Holding Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Deva Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Deva Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Deva Holding AS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Deva Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.02
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.48
σ
Overall volatility
2.54
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

Deva Holding Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Deva Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Deva Holding AS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 82.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Deva Holding Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Deva Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Deva Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Deva Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding200 M

Deva Holding Technical Analysis

Deva Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Deva Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Deva Holding AS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Deva Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Deva Holding Predictive Forecast Models

Deva Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Deva Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Deva Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Deva Holding AS

Checking the ongoing alerts about Deva Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Deva Holding AS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 82.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Additional Tools for Deva Stock Analysis

When running Deva Holding's price analysis, check to measure Deva Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Deva Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Deva Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Deva Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Deva Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Deva Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.