Defense Metals Corp Stock Probability of Future OTC Stock Price Finishing Over 22.23

DFMTF Stock  USD 0.07  0  5.63%   
Defense Metals' future price is the expected price of Defense Metals instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Defense Metals Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Defense Metals Backtesting, Defense Metals Valuation, Defense Metals Correlation, Defense Metals Hype Analysis, Defense Metals Volatility, Defense Metals History as well as Defense Metals Performance.
  
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Defense Metals Target Price Odds to finish over 22.23

The tendency of Defense OTC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 22.23  or more in 90 days
 0.07 90 days 22.23 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Defense Metals to move over $ 22.23  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Defense Metals Corp probability density function shows the probability of Defense OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Defense Metals Corp price to stay between its current price of $ 0.07  and $ 22.23  at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.84 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Defense Metals has a beta of 0.75 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Defense Metals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Defense Metals Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Defense Metals Corp has an alpha of 0.4863, implying that it can generate a 0.49 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Defense Metals Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Defense Metals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Defense Metals Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Defense Metals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.087.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.067.22
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
00.077.23
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.070.070.08
Details

Defense Metals Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Defense Metals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Defense Metals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Defense Metals Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Defense Metals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.49
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.75
σ
Overall volatility
0.01
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Defense Metals Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Defense Metals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Defense Metals Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Defense Metals Corp is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Defense Metals Corp has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Defense Metals Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Defense Metals Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Net Loss for the year was (3.78 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0.
Defense Metals Corp has accumulated about 3.44 M in cash with (2.36 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.02.
Roughly 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Defense Metals Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Defense OTC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Defense Metals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Defense Metals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding175.9 M

Defense Metals Technical Analysis

Defense Metals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Defense OTC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Defense Metals Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Defense OTC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Defense Metals Predictive Forecast Models

Defense Metals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Defense Metals' otc stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Defense Metals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the otc stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Defense Metals Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Defense Metals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Defense Metals Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Defense Metals Corp is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Defense Metals Corp has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Defense Metals Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Defense Metals Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Net Loss for the year was (3.78 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0.
Defense Metals Corp has accumulated about 3.44 M in cash with (2.36 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.02.
Roughly 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Other Information on Investing in Defense OTC Stock

Defense Metals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Defense OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Defense with respect to the benefits of owning Defense Metals security.