LyondellBasell Industries (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 82.91
| DLY Stock | EUR 79.30 1.72 2.22% |
LyondellBasell |
LyondellBasell Industries Target Price Odds to finish below 82.91
The tendency of LyondellBasell Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 82.91 after 90 days |
| 79.30 | 90 days | 82.91 | about 48.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of LyondellBasell Industries to stay under € 82.91 after 90 days from now is about 48.85 (This LyondellBasell Industries NV probability density function shows the probability of LyondellBasell Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of LyondellBasell Industries price to stay between its current price of € 79.30 and € 82.91 at the end of the 90-day period is about 36.12 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon LyondellBasell Industries has a beta of 0.71 suggesting as returns on the market go up, LyondellBasell Industries average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding LyondellBasell Industries NV will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally LyondellBasell Industries NV has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. LyondellBasell Industries Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for LyondellBasell Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LyondellBasell Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.LyondellBasell Industries Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. LyondellBasell Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the LyondellBasell Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold LyondellBasell Industries NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of LyondellBasell Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.71 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
LyondellBasell Industries Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of LyondellBasell Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for LyondellBasell Industries can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| LyondellBasell Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| LyondellBasell Industries has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
LyondellBasell Industries Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of LyondellBasell Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential LyondellBasell Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LyondellBasell Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 325.6 M |
LyondellBasell Industries Technical Analysis
LyondellBasell Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. LyondellBasell Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of LyondellBasell Industries NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing LyondellBasell Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
LyondellBasell Industries Predictive Forecast Models
LyondellBasell Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many LyondellBasell Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary LyondellBasell Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about LyondellBasell Industries
Checking the ongoing alerts about LyondellBasell Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for LyondellBasell Industries help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| LyondellBasell Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| LyondellBasell Industries has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in LyondellBasell Stock
When determining whether LyondellBasell Industries offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of LyondellBasell Industries' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Lyondellbasell Industries Nv Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Lyondellbasell Industries Nv Stock:Check out LyondellBasell Industries Backtesting, LyondellBasell Industries Valuation, LyondellBasell Industries Correlation, LyondellBasell Industries Hype Analysis, LyondellBasell Industries Volatility, LyondellBasell Industries History as well as LyondellBasell Industries Performance. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.