Us Dollar Commodity Probability of Future Commodity Price Finishing Over 106.8
| DXUSD Commodity | 105.80 0.34 0.32% |
DXUSD |
US Dollar Target Price Odds to finish over 106.8
The tendency of DXUSD Commodity price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 106.80 or more in 90 days |
| 105.80 | 90 days | 106.80 | about 5.15 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of US Dollar to move over 106.80 or more in 90 days from now is about 5.15 (This US Dollar probability density function shows the probability of DXUSD Commodity to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of US Dollar price to stay between its current price of 105.80 and 106.80 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.88 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon US Dollar has a beta of -0.0093 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding US Dollar are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, US Dollar is likely to outperform the market. Additionally US Dollar has an alpha of 0.053, implying that it can generate a 0.053 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). US Dollar Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for US Dollar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US Dollar. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the commodity market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the commodity market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of US Dollar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
US Dollar Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. US Dollar is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the US Dollar's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold US Dollar, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of US Dollar within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0093 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
US Dollar Technical Analysis
US Dollar's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. DXUSD Commodity technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of US Dollar. In general, you should focus on analyzing DXUSD Commodity price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
US Dollar Predictive Forecast Models
US Dollar's time-series forecasting models is one of many US Dollar's commodity analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary US Dollar's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the commodity market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards US Dollar in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, US Dollar's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from US Dollar options trading.