New Oriental (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 28.59

E1DU34 Stock  BRL 25.29  0.21  0.82%   
New Oriental's future price is the expected price of New Oriental instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of New Oriental Education performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out New Oriental Backtesting, New Oriental Valuation, New Oriental Correlation, New Oriental Hype Analysis, New Oriental Volatility, New Oriental History as well as New Oriental Performance.
  
Please specify New Oriental's target price for which you would like New Oriental odds to be computed.

New Oriental Target Price Odds to finish below 28.59

The tendency of New Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under R$ 28.59  after 90 days
 25.29 90 days 28.59 
roughly 97.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of New Oriental to stay under R$ 28.59  after 90 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This New Oriental Education probability density function shows the probability of New Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of New Oriental Education price to stay between its current price of R$ 25.29  and R$ 28.59  at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.23 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon New Oriental Education has a beta of -0.23 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding New Oriental are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, New Oriental Education is likely to outperform the market. Additionally New Oriental Education has an alpha of 0.2566, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   New Oriental Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for New Oriental

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Oriental Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.8725.5029.13
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.7521.3828.05
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
22.3025.9329.56
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
24.0426.1128.18
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as New Oriental. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against New Oriental's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, New Oriental's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in New Oriental Education.

New Oriental Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. New Oriental is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the New Oriental's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold New Oriental Education, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of New Oriental within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.26
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.23
σ
Overall volatility
2.23
Ir
Information ratio 0.03

New Oriental Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of New Oriental for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for New Oriental Education can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
New Oriental had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
New Oriental has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the revenue of 3.11 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.19 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.35 B.
New Oriental Education has accumulated about 4.19 B in cash with (1.28 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 24.66.

New Oriental Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of New Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential New Oriental's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. New Oriental's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.7 B

New Oriental Technical Analysis

New Oriental's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. New Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of New Oriental Education. In general, you should focus on analyzing New Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

New Oriental Predictive Forecast Models

New Oriental's time-series forecasting models is one of many New Oriental's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary New Oriental's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about New Oriental Education

Checking the ongoing alerts about New Oriental for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for New Oriental Education help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
New Oriental had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
New Oriental has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the revenue of 3.11 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.19 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.35 B.
New Oriental Education has accumulated about 4.19 B in cash with (1.28 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 24.66.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in New Stock

When determining whether New Oriental Education is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if New Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about New Oriental Education Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about New Oriental Education Stock:
Check out New Oriental Backtesting, New Oriental Valuation, New Oriental Correlation, New Oriental Hype Analysis, New Oriental Volatility, New Oriental History as well as New Oriental Performance.
You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Please note, there is a significant difference between New Oriental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if New Oriental is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, New Oriental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.