Etsy (Brazil) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 22.23
| E2TS34 Stock | 20.16 0.20 1.00% |
Etsy |
Etsy Target Price Odds to finish over 22.23
The tendency of Etsy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 22.23 or more in 90 days |
| 20.16 | 90 days | 22.23 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Etsy to move over 22.23 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Etsy Inc probability density function shows the probability of Etsy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Etsy Inc price to stay between its current price of 20.16 and 22.23 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.38 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.14 suggesting Etsy Inc market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Etsy is expected to follow. Additionally Etsy Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Etsy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Etsy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Etsy Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Etsy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Etsy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Etsy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Etsy Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Etsy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.79 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Etsy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Etsy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Etsy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Etsy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 127 M |
Etsy Technical Analysis
Etsy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Etsy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Etsy Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Etsy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Etsy Predictive Forecast Models
Etsy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Etsy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Etsy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Etsy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Etsy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Etsy options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Etsy Stock
When determining whether Etsy Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Etsy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Etsy Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Etsy Inc Stock:Check out Etsy Backtesting, Etsy Valuation, Etsy Correlation, Etsy Hype Analysis, Etsy Volatility, Etsy History as well as Etsy Performance. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.