EAGLE MATERIALS (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 235.48
| E5M Stock | EUR 304.00 6.00 2.01% |
EAGLE |
EAGLE MATERIALS Target Price Odds to finish below 235.48
The tendency of EAGLE Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 235.48 or more in 90 days |
| 304.00 | 90 days | 235.48 | about 14.09 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of EAGLE MATERIALS to drop to € 235.48 or more in 90 days from now is about 14.09 (This EAGLE MATERIALS probability density function shows the probability of EAGLE Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of EAGLE MATERIALS price to stay between € 235.48 and its current price of €304.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 83.53 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.52 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, EAGLE MATERIALS will likely underperform. Additionally EAGLE MATERIALS has an alpha of 0.1818, implying that it can generate a 0.18 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). EAGLE MATERIALS Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for EAGLE MATERIALS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EAGLE MATERIALS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.EAGLE MATERIALS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. EAGLE MATERIALS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the EAGLE MATERIALS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold EAGLE MATERIALS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of EAGLE MATERIALS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.52 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 22.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
EAGLE MATERIALS Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of EAGLE Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential EAGLE MATERIALS's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. EAGLE MATERIALS's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.7 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 30.8 M |
EAGLE MATERIALS Technical Analysis
EAGLE MATERIALS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. EAGLE Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of EAGLE MATERIALS. In general, you should focus on analyzing EAGLE Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
EAGLE MATERIALS Predictive Forecast Models
EAGLE MATERIALS's time-series forecasting models is one of many EAGLE MATERIALS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary EAGLE MATERIALS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards EAGLE MATERIALS in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, EAGLE MATERIALS's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from EAGLE MATERIALS options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in EAGLE Stock
When determining whether EAGLE MATERIALS is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if EAGLE Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Eagle Materials Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Eagle Materials Stock:Check out EAGLE MATERIALS Backtesting, EAGLE MATERIALS Valuation, EAGLE MATERIALS Correlation, EAGLE MATERIALS Hype Analysis, EAGLE MATERIALS Volatility, EAGLE MATERIALS History as well as EAGLE MATERIALS Performance. For information on how to trade EAGLE Stock refer to our How to Trade EAGLE Stock guide.You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.