AECOM TECHNOLOGY (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 102.99
| E6Z Stock | EUR 111.00 4.00 3.74% |
AECOM |
AECOM TECHNOLOGY Target Price Odds to finish over 102.99
The tendency of AECOM Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 102.99 in 90 days |
| 111.00 | 90 days | 102.99 | about 10.15 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AECOM TECHNOLOGY to stay above € 102.99 in 90 days from now is about 10.15 (This AECOM TECHNOLOGY probability density function shows the probability of AECOM Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AECOM TECHNOLOGY price to stay between € 102.99 and its current price of €111.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.59 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AECOM TECHNOLOGY has a beta of 0.8 suggesting as returns on the market go up, AECOM TECHNOLOGY average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AECOM TECHNOLOGY will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AECOM TECHNOLOGY has an alpha of 0.2738, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AECOM TECHNOLOGY Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AECOM TECHNOLOGY
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AECOM TECHNOLOGY. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AECOM TECHNOLOGY Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AECOM TECHNOLOGY is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AECOM TECHNOLOGY's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AECOM TECHNOLOGY, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AECOM TECHNOLOGY within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.80 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
AECOM TECHNOLOGY Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AECOM Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AECOM TECHNOLOGY's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AECOM TECHNOLOGY's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 138.9 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 48.6 M |
AECOM TECHNOLOGY Technical Analysis
AECOM TECHNOLOGY's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AECOM Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AECOM TECHNOLOGY. In general, you should focus on analyzing AECOM Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AECOM TECHNOLOGY Predictive Forecast Models
AECOM TECHNOLOGY's time-series forecasting models is one of many AECOM TECHNOLOGY's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AECOM TECHNOLOGY's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards AECOM TECHNOLOGY in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, AECOM TECHNOLOGY's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from AECOM TECHNOLOGY options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in AECOM Stock
When determining whether AECOM TECHNOLOGY is a strong investment it is important to analyze AECOM TECHNOLOGY's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact AECOM TECHNOLOGY's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding AECOM Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out AECOM TECHNOLOGY Backtesting, AECOM TECHNOLOGY Valuation, AECOM TECHNOLOGY Correlation, AECOM TECHNOLOGY Hype Analysis, AECOM TECHNOLOGY Volatility, AECOM TECHNOLOGY History as well as AECOM TECHNOLOGY Performance. For information on how to trade AECOM Stock refer to our How to Trade AECOM Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.