Graftech International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.09
| EAF Stock | USD 2.03 0.08 3.79% |
GrafTech |
GrafTech International Target Price Odds to finish over 2.09
The tendency of GrafTech Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 2.09 or more in 90 days |
| 2.03 | 90 days | 2.09 | about 14.53 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GrafTech International to move over $ 2.09 or more in 90 days from now is about 14.53 (This GrafTech International probability density function shows the probability of GrafTech Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GrafTech International price to stay between its current price of $ 2.03 and $ 2.09 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.74 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon GrafTech International has a beta of 0.73 suggesting as returns on the market go up, GrafTech International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding GrafTech International will be expected to be much smaller as well. Moreover GrafTech International has an alpha of 1.7916, implying that it can generate a 1.79 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). GrafTech International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for GrafTech International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GrafTech International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GrafTech International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GrafTech International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GrafTech International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GrafTech International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GrafTech International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.79 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.73 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.28 |
GrafTech International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GrafTech International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GrafTech International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| GrafTech International is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| GrafTech International appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 620.5 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (255.25 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 554.88 M. | |
| About 66.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
GrafTech International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of GrafTech Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential GrafTech International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GrafTech International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 257 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 176.9 M |
GrafTech International Technical Analysis
GrafTech International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GrafTech Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GrafTech International. In general, you should focus on analyzing GrafTech Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GrafTech International Predictive Forecast Models
GrafTech International's time-series forecasting models is one of many GrafTech International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GrafTech International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about GrafTech International
Checking the ongoing alerts about GrafTech International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GrafTech International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| GrafTech International is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| GrafTech International appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 620.5 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (255.25 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 554.88 M. | |
| About 66.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Check out GrafTech International Backtesting, GrafTech International Valuation, GrafTech International Correlation, GrafTech International Hype Analysis, GrafTech International Volatility, GrafTech International History as well as GrafTech International Performance. For more detail on how to invest in GrafTech Stock please use our How to Invest in GrafTech International guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Electrical Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of GrafTech International. If investors know GrafTech will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about GrafTech International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of GrafTech International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GrafTech that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GrafTech International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GrafTech International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because GrafTech International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GrafTech International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GrafTech International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GrafTech International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GrafTech International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.