Encavis AG (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 13.32
| ECV Stock | 17.16 0.06 0.35% |
Encavis |
Encavis AG Target Price Odds to finish over 13.32
The tendency of Encavis Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 13.32 in 90 days |
| 17.16 | 90 days | 13.32 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Encavis AG to stay above 13.32 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Encavis AG probability density function shows the probability of Encavis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Encavis AG price to stay between 13.32 and its current price of 17.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 65.7 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Encavis AG has a beta of 0.0101 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Encavis AG average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Encavis AG will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Encavis AG has an alpha of 0.0025, implying that it can generate a 0.002496 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Encavis AG Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Encavis AG
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Encavis AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Encavis AG's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Encavis AG Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Encavis AG is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Encavis AG's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Encavis AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Encavis AG within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.1 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.21 |
Encavis AG Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Encavis AG for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Encavis AG can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 56.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Encavis AG Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Encavis Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Encavis AG's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Encavis AG's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 160.5 M |
Encavis AG Technical Analysis
Encavis AG's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Encavis Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Encavis AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing Encavis Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Encavis AG Predictive Forecast Models
Encavis AG's time-series forecasting models is one of many Encavis AG's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Encavis AG's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Encavis AG
Checking the ongoing alerts about Encavis AG for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Encavis AG help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 56.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Tools for Encavis Stock Analysis
When running Encavis AG's price analysis, check to measure Encavis AG's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Encavis AG is operating at the current time. Most of Encavis AG's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Encavis AG's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Encavis AG's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Encavis AG to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.