Mota Engil (Portugal) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.53
| EGL Stock | EUR 2.61 0.03 1.16% |
Mota |
Mota Engil Target Price Odds to finish over 2.53
The tendency of Mota Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 2.53 in 90 days |
| 2.61 | 90 days | 2.53 | about 59.13 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mota Engil to stay above € 2.53 in 90 days from now is about 59.13 (This Mota Engil SGPS SA probability density function shows the probability of Mota Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mota Engil SGPS price to stay between € 2.53 and its current price of €2.61 at the end of the 90-day period is about 24.1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Mota Engil has a beta of 0.42 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Mota Engil average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mota Engil SGPS SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mota Engil SGPS SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mota Engil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mota Engil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mota Engil SGPS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mota Engil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mota Engil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mota Engil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mota Engil SGPS SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mota Engil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.42 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Mota Engil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mota Engil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mota Engil SGPS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mota Engil SGPS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Mota Engil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mota Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mota Engil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mota Engil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 300.7 M |
Mota Engil Technical Analysis
Mota Engil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mota Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mota Engil SGPS SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mota Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mota Engil Predictive Forecast Models
Mota Engil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mota Engil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mota Engil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mota Engil SGPS
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mota Engil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mota Engil SGPS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mota Engil SGPS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Mota Stock Analysis
When running Mota Engil's price analysis, check to measure Mota Engil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mota Engil is operating at the current time. Most of Mota Engil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mota Engil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mota Engil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mota Engil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.