Estée Lauder (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 73.93
| ELAA Stock | EUR 68.20 2.06 2.93% |
Estée |
Estée Lauder Target Price Odds to finish below 73.93
The tendency of Estée Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 73.93 after 90 days |
| 68.20 | 90 days | 73.93 | about 42.18 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Estée Lauder to stay under € 73.93 after 90 days from now is about 42.18 (This The Este Lauder probability density function shows the probability of Estée Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Estée Lauder price to stay between its current price of € 68.20 and € 73.93 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.08 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Estée Lauder has a beta of 0.9 suggesting The Este Lauder market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Estée Lauder is expected to follow. Additionally The Este Lauder has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Estée Lauder Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Estée Lauder
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Estée Lauder. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Estée Lauder Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Estée Lauder is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Estée Lauder's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold The Este Lauder, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Estée Lauder within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.31 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.90 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Estée Lauder Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Estée Lauder for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Estée Lauder can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Estée Lauder generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Estée Lauder has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Estée Lauder has accumulated €5.14 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Estée Lauder Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Estée Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Estée Lauder's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Estée Lauder's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 357.3 M |
Estée Lauder Technical Analysis
Estée Lauder's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Estée Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of The Este Lauder. In general, you should focus on analyzing Estée Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Estée Lauder Predictive Forecast Models
Estée Lauder's time-series forecasting models is one of many Estée Lauder's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Estée Lauder's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Estée Lauder
Checking the ongoing alerts about Estée Lauder for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Estée Lauder help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Estée Lauder generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Estée Lauder has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Estée Lauder has accumulated €5.14 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Other Information on Investing in Estée Stock
Estée Lauder financial ratios help investors to determine whether Estée Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Estée with respect to the benefits of owning Estée Lauder security.