ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 61.6
| ELG Stock | EUR 61.80 1.50 2.37% |
ELMOS |
ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR Target Price Odds to finish below 61.6
The tendency of ELMOS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 61.60 or more in 90 days |
| 61.80 | 90 days | 61.60 | about 21.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR to drop to € 61.60 or more in 90 days from now is about 21.94 (This ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR probability density function shows the probability of ELMOS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR price to stay between € 61.60 and its current price of €61.8 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR has a beta of 0.0763 suggesting as returns on the market go up, ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ELMOS Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.1 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -9.4 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 12 M |
ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR Technical Analysis
ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ELMOS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR. In general, you should focus on analyzing ELMOS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR Predictive Forecast Models
ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR's time-series forecasting models is one of many ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR
Checking the ongoing alerts about ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Other Information on Investing in ELMOS Stock
ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR financial ratios help investors to determine whether ELMOS Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ELMOS with respect to the benefits of owning ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR security.