Megapolitan Developments (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 132.14
| EMDE Stock | IDR 121.00 1.00 0.82% |
Megapolitan |
Megapolitan Developments Target Price Odds to finish over 132.14
The tendency of Megapolitan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 132.14 or more in 90 days |
| 121.00 | 90 days | 132.14 | about 75.35 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Megapolitan Developments to move over 132.14 or more in 90 days from now is about 75.35 (This Megapolitan Developments Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Megapolitan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Megapolitan Developments price to stay between its current price of 121.00 and 132.14 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.82 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.65 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Megapolitan Developments will likely underperform. Additionally Megapolitan Developments Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Megapolitan Developments Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Megapolitan Developments
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Megapolitan Developments. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Megapolitan Developments Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Megapolitan Developments is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Megapolitan Developments' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Megapolitan Developments Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Megapolitan Developments within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.6 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 20.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Megapolitan Developments Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Megapolitan Developments for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Megapolitan Developments can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Megapolitan Developments generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Megapolitan Developments has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Megapolitan Developments Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Megapolitan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Megapolitan Developments' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Megapolitan Developments' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 79.7 B |
Megapolitan Developments Technical Analysis
Megapolitan Developments' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Megapolitan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Megapolitan Developments Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Megapolitan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Megapolitan Developments Predictive Forecast Models
Megapolitan Developments' time-series forecasting models is one of many Megapolitan Developments' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Megapolitan Developments' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Megapolitan Developments
Checking the ongoing alerts about Megapolitan Developments for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Megapolitan Developments help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Megapolitan Developments generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Megapolitan Developments has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Megapolitan Stock
Megapolitan Developments financial ratios help investors to determine whether Megapolitan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Megapolitan with respect to the benefits of owning Megapolitan Developments security.