Erajaya Swasembada (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 430.78
| ERAA Stock | IDR 416.00 4.00 0.95% |
Erajaya |
Erajaya Swasembada Target Price Odds to finish below 430.78
The tendency of Erajaya Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 430.78 after 90 days |
| 416.00 | 90 days | 430.78 | about 24.02 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Erajaya Swasembada to stay under 430.78 after 90 days from now is about 24.02 (This Erajaya Swasembada Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Erajaya Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Erajaya Swasembada Tbk price to stay between its current price of 416.00 and 430.78 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.99 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Erajaya Swasembada Tbk has a beta of -0.81 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Erajaya Swasembada are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Erajaya Swasembada Tbk is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Erajaya Swasembada Tbk has an alpha of 0.021, implying that it can generate a 0.021 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Erajaya Swasembada Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Erajaya Swasembada
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Erajaya Swasembada Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Erajaya Swasembada Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Erajaya Swasembada is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Erajaya Swasembada's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Erajaya Swasembada Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Erajaya Swasembada within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.81 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 14.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Erajaya Swasembada Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Erajaya Swasembada for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Erajaya Swasembada Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Erajaya Swasembada generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 55.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Erajaya Swasembada Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Erajaya Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Erajaya Swasembada's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Erajaya Swasembada's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 550.4 B |
Erajaya Swasembada Technical Analysis
Erajaya Swasembada's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Erajaya Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Erajaya Swasembada Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Erajaya Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Erajaya Swasembada Predictive Forecast Models
Erajaya Swasembada's time-series forecasting models is one of many Erajaya Swasembada's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Erajaya Swasembada's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Erajaya Swasembada Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Erajaya Swasembada for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Erajaya Swasembada Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Erajaya Swasembada generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 55.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Erajaya Stock
Erajaya Swasembada financial ratios help investors to determine whether Erajaya Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Erajaya with respect to the benefits of owning Erajaya Swasembada security.