Evolent Health Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 21.78
| EVH Stock | USD 12.92 0.01 0.08% |
Closest to current price Evolent long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Evolent |
Evolent Health Target Price Odds to finish over 21.78
The tendency of Evolent Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 21.78 or more in 90 days |
| 12.92 | 90 days | 21.78 | about 62.74 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Evolent Health to move over $ 21.78 or more in 90 days from now is about 62.74 (This Evolent Health probability density function shows the probability of Evolent Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Evolent Health price to stay between its current price of $ 12.92 and $ 21.78 at the end of the 90-day period is about 32.26 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.24 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Evolent Health will likely underperform. Additionally Evolent Health has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Evolent Health Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Evolent Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evolent Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Evolent Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Evolent Health Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Evolent Health is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Evolent Health's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Evolent Health, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Evolent Health within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -1.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.71 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Evolent Health Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Evolent Health for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Evolent Health can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Evolent Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Evolent Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.96 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (113.04 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 316.58 M. | |
| Evolent Health has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 75931 shares by Seth Blackley of Evolent Health at 30.2 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Evolent Health Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Evolent Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Evolent Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evolent Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 111.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 192.8 M |
Evolent Health Technical Analysis
Evolent Health's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Evolent Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Evolent Health. In general, you should focus on analyzing Evolent Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Evolent Health Predictive Forecast Models
Evolent Health's time-series forecasting models is one of many Evolent Health's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Evolent Health's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Evolent Health
Checking the ongoing alerts about Evolent Health for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Evolent Health help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Evolent Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Evolent Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.96 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (113.04 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 316.58 M. | |
| Evolent Health has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 75931 shares by Seth Blackley of Evolent Health at 30.2 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Evolent Health Backtesting, Evolent Health Valuation, Evolent Health Correlation, Evolent Health Hype Analysis, Evolent Health Volatility, Evolent Health History as well as Evolent Health Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Evolent Stock please use our How to Invest in Evolent Health guide.You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Is Health Care Technology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Evolent Health. If investors know Evolent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Evolent Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.92) | Revenue Per Share 21.554 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.216 | Return On Assets 0.0073 | Return On Equity (0.06) |
The market value of Evolent Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Evolent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Evolent Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Evolent Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Evolent Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Evolent Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Evolent Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Evolent Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Evolent Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.