Evonik Industries Ag Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 13.01
| EVKIF Stock | USD 18.50 0.46 2.55% |
Evonik |
Evonik Industries Target Price Odds to finish below 13.01
The tendency of Evonik Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 13.01 or more in 90 days |
| 18.50 | 90 days | 13.01 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Evonik Industries to drop to $ 13.01 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Evonik Industries AG probability density function shows the probability of Evonik Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Evonik Industries price to stay between $ 13.01 and its current price of $18.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.93 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Evonik Industries AG has a beta of -0.0324 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Evonik Industries are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Evonik Industries AG is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Evonik Industries AG has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Evonik Industries Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Evonik Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evonik Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Evonik Industries Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Evonik Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Evonik Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Evonik Industries AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Evonik Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.06 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Evonik Industries Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Evonik Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Evonik Industries can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Evonik Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Evonik Industries Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Evonik Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Evonik Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evonik Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 466 M |
Evonik Industries Technical Analysis
Evonik Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Evonik Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Evonik Industries AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing Evonik Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Evonik Industries Predictive Forecast Models
Evonik Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many Evonik Industries' pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Evonik Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Evonik Industries
Checking the ongoing alerts about Evonik Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Evonik Industries help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Evonik Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Evonik Pink Sheet
Evonik Industries financial ratios help investors to determine whether Evonik Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Evonik with respect to the benefits of owning Evonik Industries security.