Fortress Biotech Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.77
| FBIO Stock | USD 2.13 0.30 16.39% |
Fortress |
Fortress Biotech Target Price Odds to finish below 1.77
The tendency of Fortress Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.77 or more in 90 days |
| 2.13 | 90 days | 1.77 | about 58.65 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fortress Biotech to drop to $ 1.77 or more in 90 days from now is about 58.65 (This Fortress Biotech probability density function shows the probability of Fortress Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fortress Biotech price to stay between $ 1.77 and its current price of $2.13 at the end of the 90-day period is about 39.89 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.6 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Fortress Biotech will likely underperform. Additionally Fortress Biotech has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Fortress Biotech Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Fortress Biotech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fortress Biotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fortress Biotech Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fortress Biotech is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fortress Biotech's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fortress Biotech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fortress Biotech within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.60 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Fortress Biotech Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Fortress Biotech for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Fortress Biotech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Fortress Biotech had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Fortress Biotech has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 84.51 M. Net Loss for the year was (60.64 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (85.66 M). | |
| Fortress Biotech currently holds about 208.35 M in cash with (128.22 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.92. | |
| Fortress Biotech has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Fortress Biotech, Inc. Short Interest Up 1,700.0 percent in November |
Fortress Biotech Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fortress Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fortress Biotech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fortress Biotech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 80.9 M |
Fortress Biotech Technical Analysis
Fortress Biotech's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fortress Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fortress Biotech. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fortress Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Fortress Biotech Predictive Forecast Models
Fortress Biotech's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fortress Biotech's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fortress Biotech's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Fortress Biotech
Checking the ongoing alerts about Fortress Biotech for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Fortress Biotech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Fortress Biotech had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Fortress Biotech has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 84.51 M. Net Loss for the year was (60.64 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (85.66 M). | |
| Fortress Biotech currently holds about 208.35 M in cash with (128.22 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.92. | |
| Fortress Biotech has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Fortress Biotech, Inc. Short Interest Up 1,700.0 percent in November |
Check out Fortress Biotech Backtesting, Fortress Biotech Valuation, Fortress Biotech Correlation, Fortress Biotech Hype Analysis, Fortress Biotech Volatility, Fortress Biotech History as well as Fortress Biotech Performance. To learn how to invest in Fortress Stock, please use our How to Invest in Fortress Biotech guide.You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fortress Biotech. If investors know Fortress will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fortress Biotech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (27.73) | Revenue Per Share 6.15 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.14) | Return On Assets (0.36) | Return On Equity (17.40) |
The market value of Fortress Biotech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fortress that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fortress Biotech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fortress Biotech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fortress Biotech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fortress Biotech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fortress Biotech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fortress Biotech is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fortress Biotech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.