First Trust Short Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 18.12
| FDHIX Fund | USD 18.13 0.02 0.11% |
FIRST |
First Trust Target Price Odds to finish over 18.12
The tendency of FIRST Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 18.12 in 90 days |
| 18.13 | 90 days | 18.12 | about 12.43 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Trust to stay above $ 18.12 in 90 days from now is about 12.43 (This First Trust Short probability density function shows the probability of FIRST Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Trust Short price to stay between $ 18.12 and its current price of $18.13 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.51 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon First Trust has a beta of 0.0062. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Trust average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Trust Short will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First Trust Short has an alpha of 0.0275, implying that it can generate a 0.0275 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). First Trust Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Trust
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Trust Short. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Trust Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Trust is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Trust's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Trust Short, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Trust within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.6 |
First Trust Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Trust for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Trust Short can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund retains about 7.01% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
First Trust Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of FIRST Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Trust's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Trust's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
First Trust Technical Analysis
First Trust's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FIRST Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Trust Short. In general, you should focus on analyzing FIRST Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Trust Predictive Forecast Models
First Trust's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Trust's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Trust's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Trust Short
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Trust for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Trust Short help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund retains about 7.01% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Other Information on Investing in FIRST Mutual Fund
First Trust financial ratios help investors to determine whether FIRST Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in FIRST with respect to the benefits of owning First Trust security.
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