Commercial Vehicle (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.45
| FDU Stock | 2.28 0.02 0.88% |
Commercial |
Commercial Vehicle Target Price Odds to finish over 5.45
The tendency of Commercial Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 5.45 or more in 90 days |
| 2.28 | 90 days | 5.45 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Commercial Vehicle to move over 5.45 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Commercial Vehicle Group probability density function shows the probability of Commercial Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Commercial Vehicle price to stay between its current price of 2.28 and 5.45 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Commercial Vehicle Group has a beta of -0.68. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Commercial Vehicle are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Commercial Vehicle Group is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Commercial Vehicle Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Commercial Vehicle Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Commercial Vehicle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commercial Vehicle. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commercial Vehicle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Commercial Vehicle Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Commercial Vehicle is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Commercial Vehicle's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Commercial Vehicle Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Commercial Vehicle within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
Commercial Vehicle Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Commercial Vehicle for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Commercial Vehicle can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Commercial Vehicle generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Commercial Vehicle has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Commercial Vehicle generates negative cash flow from operations |
Commercial Vehicle Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Commercial Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Commercial Vehicle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Commercial Vehicle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 32 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 9.4 M |
Commercial Vehicle Technical Analysis
Commercial Vehicle's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Commercial Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Commercial Vehicle Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Commercial Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Commercial Vehicle Predictive Forecast Models
Commercial Vehicle's time-series forecasting models is one of many Commercial Vehicle's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Commercial Vehicle's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Commercial Vehicle
Checking the ongoing alerts about Commercial Vehicle for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Commercial Vehicle help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Commercial Vehicle generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Commercial Vehicle has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Commercial Vehicle generates negative cash flow from operations |
Additional Tools for Commercial Stock Analysis
When running Commercial Vehicle's price analysis, check to measure Commercial Vehicle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commercial Vehicle is operating at the current time. Most of Commercial Vehicle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commercial Vehicle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commercial Vehicle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commercial Vehicle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.