Firstenergy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 39.79
| FE Stock | USD 41.79 0.41 0.97% |
FirstEnergy |
FirstEnergy Target Price Odds to finish below 39.79
The tendency of FirstEnergy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 39.79 or more in 90 days |
| 41.79 | 90 days | 39.79 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FirstEnergy to drop to $ 39.79 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This FirstEnergy probability density function shows the probability of FirstEnergy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of FirstEnergy price to stay between $ 39.79 and its current price of $41.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.78 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon FirstEnergy has a beta of 0.0946. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, FirstEnergy average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding FirstEnergy will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally FirstEnergy has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. FirstEnergy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for FirstEnergy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FirstEnergy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FirstEnergy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FirstEnergy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FirstEnergy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FirstEnergy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FirstEnergy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FirstEnergy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.94 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
FirstEnergy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of FirstEnergy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for FirstEnergy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| FirstEnergy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| FirstEnergy reports 24.91 B of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.89, which is normal for its line of buisiness. FirstEnergy has a current ratio of 0.65, implying that it has not enough working capital to pay out debt commitments in time. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for FirstEnergy to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 90.0% of FirstEnergy shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Capital World Investors Increases Stake in FirstEnergy Corp |
FirstEnergy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of FirstEnergy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential FirstEnergy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FirstEnergy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 574 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 137 M |
FirstEnergy Technical Analysis
FirstEnergy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FirstEnergy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FirstEnergy. In general, you should focus on analyzing FirstEnergy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
FirstEnergy Predictive Forecast Models
FirstEnergy's time-series forecasting models is one of many FirstEnergy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FirstEnergy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about FirstEnergy
Checking the ongoing alerts about FirstEnergy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for FirstEnergy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| FirstEnergy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| FirstEnergy reports 24.91 B of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.89, which is normal for its line of buisiness. FirstEnergy has a current ratio of 0.65, implying that it has not enough working capital to pay out debt commitments in time. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for FirstEnergy to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 90.0% of FirstEnergy shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Capital World Investors Increases Stake in FirstEnergy Corp |
Check out FirstEnergy Backtesting, FirstEnergy Valuation, FirstEnergy Correlation, FirstEnergy Hype Analysis, FirstEnergy Volatility, FirstEnergy History as well as FirstEnergy Performance. For information on how to trade FirstEnergy Stock refer to our How to Trade FirstEnergy Stock guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is Electric Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FirstEnergy. If investors know FirstEnergy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FirstEnergy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.049 | Dividend Share 1.67 | Earnings Share 1.55 | Revenue Per Share 23.076 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.069 |
The market value of FirstEnergy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FirstEnergy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FirstEnergy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FirstEnergy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FirstEnergy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FirstEnergy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FirstEnergy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FirstEnergy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FirstEnergy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.