FESA4F (Brazil) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 7.80

FESA4F Stock  BRL 7.80  0.28  3.47%   
FESA4F's future price is the expected price of FESA4F instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of FESA4F performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out FESA4F Analysis, FESA4F Valuation, FESA4F Correlation, FESA4F Hype Analysis, FESA4F Volatility, FESA4F Price History as well as FESA4F Performance.
  
Please specify FESA4F's target price for which you would like FESA4F odds to be computed.

FESA4F Target Price Odds to finish over 7.80

The tendency of FESA4F Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 7.80 90 days 7.80 
about 15.87
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FESA4F to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 15.87 (This FESA4F probability density function shows the probability of FESA4F Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon FESA4F has a beta of 0.14. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, FESA4F average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding FESA4F will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally FESA4F has an alpha of 0.0887, implying that it can generate a 0.0887 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   FESA4F Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for FESA4F

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FESA4F. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.697.809.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.067.179.28
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as FESA4F. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against FESA4F's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, FESA4F's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in FESA4F.

FESA4F Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FESA4F is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FESA4F's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FESA4F, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FESA4F within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.09
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.14
σ
Overall volatility
0.52
Ir
Information ratio 0.03

FESA4F Technical Analysis

FESA4F's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FESA4F Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FESA4F. In general, you should focus on analyzing FESA4F Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

FESA4F Predictive Forecast Models

FESA4F's time-series forecasting models is one of many FESA4F's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FESA4F's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards FESA4F in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, FESA4F's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from FESA4F options trading.

Other Information on Investing in FESA4F Stock

FESA4F financial ratios help investors to determine whether FESA4F Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in FESA4F with respect to the benefits of owning FESA4F security.