FibroGen (Mexico) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 13.23
| FGEN Stock | MXN 7.94 0.89 12.62% |
FibroGen |
FibroGen Target Price Odds to finish over 13.23
The tendency of FibroGen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 13.23 or more in 90 days |
| 7.94 | 90 days | 13.23 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FibroGen to move over 13.23 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This FibroGen probability density function shows the probability of FibroGen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of FibroGen price to stay between its current price of 7.94 and 13.23 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.18 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon FibroGen has a beta of -0.3. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding FibroGen are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, FibroGen is likely to outperform the market. Additionally FibroGen has an alpha of 0.3834, implying that it can generate a 0.38 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). FibroGen Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for FibroGen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FibroGen. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.FibroGen Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FibroGen is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FibroGen's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FibroGen, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FibroGen within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.3 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.70 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
FibroGen Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of FibroGen for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for FibroGen can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| FibroGen had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| FibroGen has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 235.31 M. Net Loss for the year was (290.02 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (104.61 M). | |
| FibroGen has accumulated about 565.4 M in cash with (82.23 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.56. | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
FibroGen Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of FibroGen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential FibroGen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FibroGen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 92.9 M |
FibroGen Technical Analysis
FibroGen's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FibroGen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FibroGen. In general, you should focus on analyzing FibroGen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
FibroGen Predictive Forecast Models
FibroGen's time-series forecasting models is one of many FibroGen's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FibroGen's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about FibroGen
Checking the ongoing alerts about FibroGen for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for FibroGen help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| FibroGen had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| FibroGen has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 235.31 M. Net Loss for the year was (290.02 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (104.61 M). | |
| FibroGen has accumulated about 565.4 M in cash with (82.23 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.56. | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Tools for FibroGen Stock Analysis
When running FibroGen's price analysis, check to measure FibroGen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FibroGen is operating at the current time. Most of FibroGen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FibroGen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FibroGen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FibroGen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.