Fidelity Small Cap Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 5.05
| FID661 Fund | 4.06 0.02 0.50% |
Fidelity |
Fidelity Small Target Price Odds to finish over 5.05
The tendency of Fidelity Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 5.05 or more in 90 days |
| 4.06 | 90 days | 5.05 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fidelity Small to move over 5.05 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Fidelity Small Cap probability density function shows the probability of Fidelity Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fidelity Small Cap price to stay between its current price of 4.06 and 5.05 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Fidelity Small has a beta of 0.13. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Fidelity Small average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Fidelity Small Cap will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Fidelity Small Cap has an alpha of 0.0275, implying that it can generate a 0.0275 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Fidelity Small Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Fidelity Small
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidelity Small Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fidelity Small. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fidelity Small's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fidelity Small's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fidelity Small Cap.Fidelity Small Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fidelity Small is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fidelity Small's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fidelity Small Cap, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fidelity Small within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.24 |
Fidelity Small Technical Analysis
Fidelity Small's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fidelity Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fidelity Small Cap. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fidelity Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Fidelity Small Predictive Forecast Models
Fidelity Small's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fidelity Small's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fidelity Small's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Fidelity Small in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Fidelity Small's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Fidelity Small options trading.
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