FIRST MUTUAL (Zimbabwe) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 414.33
| FML Stock | 449.95 0.00 0.00% |
FIRST |
FIRST MUTUAL Target Price Odds to finish below 414.33
The tendency of FIRST Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 414.33 or more in 90 days |
| 449.95 | 90 days | 414.33 | about 61.24 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FIRST MUTUAL to drop to 414.33 or more in 90 days from now is about 61.24 (This FIRST MUTUAL HOLDINGS probability density function shows the probability of FIRST Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of FIRST MUTUAL HOLDINGS price to stay between 414.33 and its current price of 449.95 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.56 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon FIRST MUTUAL has a beta of 0.38. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, FIRST MUTUAL average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding FIRST MUTUAL HOLDINGS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Moreover FIRST MUTUAL HOLDINGS has an alpha of 1.5738, implying that it can generate a 1.57 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). FIRST MUTUAL Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for FIRST MUTUAL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FIRST MUTUAL HOLDINGS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FIRST MUTUAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FIRST MUTUAL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FIRST MUTUAL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FIRST MUTUAL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FIRST MUTUAL HOLDINGS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FIRST MUTUAL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.57 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 92.96 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.28 |
FIRST MUTUAL Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of FIRST MUTUAL for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for FIRST MUTUAL HOLDINGS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| FIRST MUTUAL is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| FIRST MUTUAL appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
FIRST MUTUAL Technical Analysis
FIRST MUTUAL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FIRST Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FIRST MUTUAL HOLDINGS. In general, you should focus on analyzing FIRST Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
FIRST MUTUAL Predictive Forecast Models
FIRST MUTUAL's time-series forecasting models is one of many FIRST MUTUAL's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FIRST MUTUAL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about FIRST MUTUAL HOLDINGS
Checking the ongoing alerts about FIRST MUTUAL for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for FIRST MUTUAL HOLDINGS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.