Federated Premier Municipal Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 11.12
| FMN Fund | USD 11.12 0.02 0.18% |
Federated |
Federated Premier Target Price Odds to finish below 11.12
The tendency of Federated Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 11.12 | 90 days | 11.12 | about 6.99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Federated Premier to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 6.99 (This Federated Premier Municipal probability density function shows the probability of Federated Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Federated Premier Municipal has a beta of -0.11. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Federated Premier are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Federated Premier Municipal is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Federated Premier Municipal has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Federated Premier Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Federated Premier
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federated Premier. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Federated Premier Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Federated Premier is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Federated Premier's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Federated Premier Municipal, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Federated Premier within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.26 |
Federated Premier Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Federated Premier for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Federated Premier can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Federated Premier generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -3.0% |
Federated Premier Technical Analysis
Federated Premier's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Federated Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Federated Premier Municipal. In general, you should focus on analyzing Federated Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Federated Premier Predictive Forecast Models
Federated Premier's time-series forecasting models is one of many Federated Premier's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Federated Premier's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Federated Premier
Checking the ongoing alerts about Federated Premier for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Federated Premier help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Federated Premier generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -3.0% |
Other Information on Investing in Federated Fund
Federated Premier financial ratios help investors to determine whether Federated Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Federated with respect to the benefits of owning Federated Premier security.
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| CEOs Directory Screen CEOs from public companies around the world | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Portfolio Backtesting Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios |