First Trust Mortgage Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 11.36
| FMY Fund | USD 11.98 0.13 1.10% |
First |
First Trust Target Price Odds to finish below 11.36
The tendency of First Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 11.36 or more in 90 days |
| 11.98 | 90 days | 11.36 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Trust to drop to $ 11.36 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This First Trust Mortgage probability density function shows the probability of First Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Trust Mortgage price to stay between $ 11.36 and its current price of $11.98 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.85 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon First Trust Mortgage has a beta of -0.11. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding First Trust are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, First Trust Mortgage is likely to outperform the market. Additionally First Trust Mortgage has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. First Trust Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Trust
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Trust Mortgage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Trust Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Trust is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Trust's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Trust Mortgage, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Trust within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0081 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.23 |
First Trust Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Trust for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Trust Mortgage can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First Trust Mortgage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
First Trust Technical Analysis
First Trust's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Trust Mortgage. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Trust Predictive Forecast Models
First Trust's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Trust's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Trust's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Trust Mortgage
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Trust for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Trust Mortgage help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| First Trust Mortgage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in First Fund
First Trust financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Trust security.
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