First National Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 44.49
| FN Stock | CAD 44.53 0.02 0.04% |
First |
First National Target Price Odds to finish below 44.49
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to C$ 44.49 or more in 90 days |
| 44.53 | 90 days | 44.49 | about 99.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First National to drop to C$ 44.49 or more in 90 days from now is about 99.0 (This First National Financial probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First National Financial price to stay between C$ 44.49 and its current price of C$44.53 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon First National has a beta of 0.27. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First National average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First National Financial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First National Financial has an alpha of 0.2542, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). First National Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First National Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First National Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First National Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
First National Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First National for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First National Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First National Financial has accumulated about 1.07 B in cash with (48.49 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 17.93. | |
| Roughly 71.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: First National Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results - StockTitan |
First National Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 60 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 702.4 M |
First National Technical Analysis
First National's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First National Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First National Predictive Forecast Models
First National's time-series forecasting models is one of many First National's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First National's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First National Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about First National for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First National Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| First National Financial has accumulated about 1.07 B in cash with (48.49 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 17.93. | |
| Roughly 71.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: First National Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results - StockTitan |
Other Information on Investing in First Stock
First National financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First National security.