FNCB Bancorp Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6.05
| FNCBDelisted Stock | USD 6.75 0.40 6.30% |
FNCB |
FNCB Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish below 6.05
The tendency of FNCB Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 6.05 or more in 90 days |
| 6.75 | 90 days | 6.05 | about 92.99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FNCB Bancorp to drop to $ 6.05 or more in 90 days from now is about 92.99 (This FNCB Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of FNCB Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of FNCB Bancorp price to stay between $ 6.05 and its current price of $6.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.92 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days FNCB Bancorp has a beta of 0.0854. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, FNCB Bancorp average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding FNCB Bancorp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally FNCB Bancorp has an alpha of 0.2186, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). FNCB Bancorp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for FNCB Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FNCB Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FNCB Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FNCB Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FNCB Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FNCB Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FNCB Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FNCB Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
FNCB Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of FNCB Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for FNCB Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| FNCB Bancorp is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| FNCB Bancorp has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| About 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
FNCB Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of FNCB Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential FNCB Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FNCB Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 107.9 M |
FNCB Bancorp Technical Analysis
FNCB Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FNCB Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FNCB Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing FNCB Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
FNCB Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
FNCB Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many FNCB Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FNCB Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about FNCB Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about FNCB Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for FNCB Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| FNCB Bancorp is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| FNCB Bancorp has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| About 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Other Consideration for investing in FNCB Stock
If you are still planning to invest in FNCB Bancorp check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the FNCB Bancorp's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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