Fossil Group 7 Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 14.95
| FOSLL Stock | USD 13.81 0.02 0.14% |
Fossil |
Fossil Group Target Price Odds to finish over 14.95
The tendency of Fossil Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 14.95 or more in 90 days |
| 13.81 | 90 days | 14.95 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fossil Group to move over $ 14.95 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Fossil Group 7 probability density function shows the probability of Fossil Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fossil Group 7 price to stay between its current price of $ 13.81 and $ 14.95 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.43 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Fossil Group has a beta of 0.35. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Fossil Group average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Fossil Group 7 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Fossil Group 7 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Fossil Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Fossil Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fossil Group 7. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fossil Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fossil Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fossil Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fossil Group 7, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fossil Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0014 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Fossil Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fossil Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fossil Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fossil Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Shares Short Prior Month | 9400 |
Fossil Group Technical Analysis
Fossil Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fossil Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fossil Group 7. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fossil Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Fossil Group Predictive Forecast Models
Fossil Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fossil Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fossil Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Fossil Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Fossil Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Fossil Group options trading.
Check out Fossil Group Backtesting, Fossil Group Valuation, Fossil Group Correlation, Fossil Group Hype Analysis, Fossil Group Volatility, Fossil Group History as well as Fossil Group Performance. For more information on how to buy Fossil Stock please use our How to buy in Fossil Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Consumer Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fossil Group. If investors know Fossil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fossil Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Fossil Group 7 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fossil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fossil Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fossil Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fossil Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fossil Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fossil Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fossil Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fossil Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.