Health Care Services Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 129.04

FSHCX Fund  USD 120.19  1.10  0.91%   
Health Care's future price is the expected price of Health Care instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Health Care Services performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Health Care Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Health Care Correlation, Health Care Hype Analysis, Health Care Volatility, Health Care History as well as Health Care Performance.
  
Please specify Health Care's target price for which you would like Health Care odds to be computed.

Health Care Target Price Odds to finish below 129.04

The tendency of Health Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 129.04  after 90 days
 120.19 90 days 129.04 
about 70.23
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Health Care to stay under $ 129.04  after 90 days from now is about 70.23 (This Health Care Services probability density function shows the probability of Health Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Health Care Services price to stay between its current price of $ 120.19  and $ 129.04  at the end of the 90-day period is about 66.71 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.03 . This usually indicates Health Care Services market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Health Care is expected to follow. Additionally Health Care Services has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Health Care Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Health Care

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Health Care Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Health Care's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
107.20108.38132.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
119.20120.38121.56
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
115.78116.96118.14
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
119.37120.50121.63
Details

Health Care Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Health Care is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Health Care's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Health Care Services, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Health Care within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.25
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.03
σ
Overall volatility
3.83
Ir
Information ratio -0.21

Health Care Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Health Care for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Health Care Services can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Health Care Services generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Latest headline from news.google.com: Fidelity Select Technology Portfolio Q3 2024 Fund Review - Seeking Alpha
The fund retains 98.1% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Health Care Technical Analysis

Health Care's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Health Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Health Care Services. In general, you should focus on analyzing Health Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Health Care Predictive Forecast Models

Health Care's time-series forecasting models is one of many Health Care's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Health Care's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Health Care Services

Checking the ongoing alerts about Health Care for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Health Care Services help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Health Care Services generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Latest headline from news.google.com: Fidelity Select Technology Portfolio Q3 2024 Fund Review - Seeking Alpha
The fund retains 98.1% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Other Information on Investing in Health Mutual Fund

Health Care financial ratios help investors to determine whether Health Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Health with respect to the benefits of owning Health Care security.
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