General Dynamics (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1637.08
| GDBR34 Stock | BRL 1,671 39.53 2.42% |
General |
General Dynamics Target Price Odds to finish below 1637.08
The tendency of General Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 1,637 or more in 90 days |
| 1,671 | 90 days | 1,637 | about 18.84 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of General Dynamics to drop to R$ 1,637 or more in 90 days from now is about 18.84 (This General Dynamics probability density function shows the probability of General Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of General Dynamics price to stay between R$ 1,637 and its current price of R$1671.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.62 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon General Dynamics has a beta of 0.062. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, General Dynamics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding General Dynamics will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally General Dynamics has an alpha of 0.0621, implying that it can generate a 0.0621 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). General Dynamics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for General Dynamics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as General Dynamics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.General Dynamics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. General Dynamics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the General Dynamics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold General Dynamics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of General Dynamics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 53.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
General Dynamics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of General Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential General Dynamics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. General Dynamics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 274.4 M |
General Dynamics Technical Analysis
General Dynamics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. General Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of General Dynamics. In general, you should focus on analyzing General Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
General Dynamics Predictive Forecast Models
General Dynamics' time-series forecasting models is one of many General Dynamics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary General Dynamics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards General Dynamics in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, General Dynamics' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from General Dynamics options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in General Stock
When determining whether General Dynamics is a strong investment it is important to analyze General Dynamics' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact General Dynamics' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding General Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out General Dynamics Backtesting, General Dynamics Valuation, General Dynamics Correlation, General Dynamics Hype Analysis, General Dynamics Volatility, General Dynamics History as well as General Dynamics Performance. For information on how to trade General Stock refer to our How to Trade General Stock guide.You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.