Gotham Defensive Long Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 14.84

GDLFX Fund  USD 18.55  0.05  0.27%   
Gotham Defensive's future price is the expected price of Gotham Defensive instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Gotham Defensive Long performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Gotham Defensive Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Gotham Defensive Correlation, Gotham Defensive Hype Analysis, Gotham Defensive Volatility, Gotham Defensive History as well as Gotham Defensive Performance.
  
Please specify Gotham Defensive's target price for which you would like Gotham Defensive odds to be computed.

Gotham Defensive Target Price Odds to finish below 14.84

The tendency of Gotham Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 14.84  or more in 90 days
 18.55 90 days 14.84 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gotham Defensive to drop to $ 14.84  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Gotham Defensive Long probability density function shows the probability of Gotham Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gotham Defensive Long price to stay between $ 14.84  and its current price of $18.55 at the end of the 90-day period is about 43.82 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Gotham Defensive has a beta of 0.64. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Gotham Defensive average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Gotham Defensive Long will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Gotham Defensive Long has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Gotham Defensive Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Gotham Defensive

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gotham Defensive Long. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.8718.5519.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.9018.5819.26
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
17.7318.4119.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
18.4918.8419.19
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Gotham Defensive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Gotham Defensive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Gotham Defensive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Gotham Defensive Long.

Gotham Defensive Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gotham Defensive is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gotham Defensive's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gotham Defensive Long, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gotham Defensive within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.03
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.64
σ
Overall volatility
0.26
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

Gotham Defensive Technical Analysis

Gotham Defensive's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gotham Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gotham Defensive Long. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gotham Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Gotham Defensive Predictive Forecast Models

Gotham Defensive's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gotham Defensive's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gotham Defensive's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Gotham Defensive in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Gotham Defensive's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Gotham Defensive options trading.

Other Information on Investing in Gotham Mutual Fund

Gotham Defensive financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gotham Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gotham with respect to the benefits of owning Gotham Defensive security.
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